Cameco (CCJ) investor relations material

Industry outlook and demand trends

• Nuclear power demand is shifting from growth narrative to execution, with durable global demand driven by energy, national, and climate security needs.

• Current industry demand estimates understate actual needs, as they exclude new build announcements, SMRs, and emerging sectors like AI, data centers, and naval propulsion.

• An $80 billion U.S. government initiative for new reactors could generate 65 million lbs of uranium demand over 10 years, with procurement required early in the cycle.

• Supply is vulnerable due to a decade of underinvestment, depletion of secondary supplies, and geopolitical risks, especially with Russian supply exiting Western markets post-2027.

• Utilities have not yet reached replacement rate contracting, indicating further price discovery and contracting cycles ahead.

Supply chain, pricing, and contracting

• Higher uranium prices are needed to incentivize new supply, with 3.1 billion lbs uncontracted through 2045 and 1.3 billion lbs lacking identified sources.

• Long-term contracts are preferred over spot market sales, with current base-escalated contracts around $90/lb and market-related contracts featuring $75 floors and $150 ceilings.

• The midpoint of contract floors and ceilings ($115–$120/lb) is seen as a likely long-term incentive price, but current prices are not yet high enough to trigger new greenfield investment.

• Utilities contracted 116 million lbs last year versus 190 million lbs consumed, drawing on inventories and signaling the market is not yet at replacement rate.

• Over-contracting is a deliberate strategy to manage market exposure and stabilize prices during periods of volatility.

Asset base, expansion, and operational flexibility

• Brownfield expansion capacity allows for rapid supply increases without new greenfield projects, with McArthur River and other tier-one assets offering significant upside.

• Tier-two assets and advanced exploration projects provide additional flexibility, with brownfield projects preferred for their lower risk and faster ramp-up.

• The GLE laser enrichment project could add up to 5 million lbs of uranium and conversion capacity.

• Contracting precedes production increases, ensuring supply aligns with demand and avoids oversupply.