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European Central Bank (ECB) investor relations material
European Central Bank Monetary Policy Decision summary
Complete event summary combining all related documents: earnings call transcript, report, and slide presentation.Key monetary policy decisions and outlook
Interest rates remain unchanged, with a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach guiding future decisions.
Deposit facility is at 2.00%, main refinancing at 2.15%, and marginal lending at 2.40%.
Inflation is projected to stabilize at the 2% target in the medium term, with recent figures showing a decline to 1.7% in January.
Economic growth is supported by low unemployment, robust private sector balance sheets, increased public spending, and effects of previous rate cuts.
No pre-commitment to a specific rate path; all instruments remain available to ensure inflation targets are met.
Economic activity and labor market
Q4 2025 GDP grew by 0.3%, driven mainly by services, especially information and communication.
Manufacturing remains resilient, and construction momentum is increasing, aided by public investment.
Unemployment fell to 6.2% in December, with labor incomes and lower household saving rates expected to boost consumption.
Business investment is strengthening, particularly in digital technologies and AI-related infrastructure.
Labor market indicators show increased participation and low unemployment, though vacancy growth is moderating.
Inflation dynamics and risks
Headline inflation fell to 1.7% in January, with energy inflation negative and food inflation slightly up.
Core inflation (excluding energy and food) eased to 2.2%, consistent with the medium-term target.
Wage growth is moderating, but the contribution from non-negotiated components remains uncertain.
Upside risks include persistent energy price increases, supply chain fragmentation, and higher defense spending.
Downside risks stem from weaker external demand, a stronger euro, and more volatile financial markets.
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Next European Central Bank earnings date
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