Federal Reserve System (FED) investor relations material

Economic outlook and projections

• Economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, with resilient consumer spending and ongoing business investment, though housing remains weak.

• Real GDP is projected to rise 2.4% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025, slightly stronger than previous forecasts.

• The unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.4% by year-end, with job gains low due to reduced labor force growth.

• Inflation remains somewhat elevated, with total PCE inflation projected at 2.7% for 2024 and 2.2% for 2025.

• Risks from Middle East developments are noted as uncertain for the U.S. economy.

Monetary policy stance and decisions

• The policy rate remains unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, viewed as appropriate to support employment and the 2% inflation goal.

• Interest rate paid on reserve balances is held at 3.65 percent, effective March 19, 2026.

• Standing overnight repo operations set at 3.75 percent; reverse repo at 3.5 percent with a $160 billion per-counterparty limit.

• Treasury bill purchases and reinvestments will continue to maintain ample reserves.

• The primary credit rate remains at 3.75 percent.

Policy guidance and committee actions

• Most members voted to maintain the current policy stance; one member preferred a 0.25% rate cut.

• Rate forecasts are conditional on economic performance, especially progress on inflation; if progress stalls, rate cuts may not occur.

• Policy decisions will continue to be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, with no preset course.

• The Committee will closely monitor incoming data and adjust policy as needed to achieve its goals.

• Assessments will consider labor market, inflation, financial, and international developments.