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Federal Reserve System (FED) investor relations material
Federal Reserve System FOMC Meeting summary
Complete event summary combining all related documents: earnings call transcript, report, and slide presentation.Economic outlook and recent developments
Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, supported by resilient consumer spending and continued business investment, though job gains remain low and unemployment is stabilizing at 4.4%.
Inflation remains somewhat elevated, above the 2% target, with core PCE inflation at 3.0% over the past year, mainly driven by goods sector tariffs.
Labor market conditions are stabilizing after a period of softening, with slower job growth due to reduced labor force growth from lower immigration and participation, alongside softer labor demand.
Disinflation continues in the services sector, and near-term inflation expectations have declined, while longer-term expectations remain anchored.
The Committee is focused on achieving maximum employment and 2% inflation over the long run, closely monitoring risks to both objectives.
Monetary policy stance and decisions
The policy rate remains unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% after three consecutive 25 basis point cuts, totaling 75 basis points since September.
Interest rate paid on reserve balances is 3.65 percent, with standing overnight repo operations at 3.75 percent and reverse repo at 3.5 percent with a $160 billion per-counterparty limit.
Treasury bill purchases and reinvestments will continue to maintain ample reserves.
Most committee members supported holding rates steady, with some dissent favoring a cut; no preset test for future cuts was articulated.
Decisions on future rate adjustments will be made meeting by meeting, guided by incoming data and evolving risks.
Inflation drivers and outlook
Most of the recent inflation overshoot is attributed to tariffs on goods, expected to be a one-time price increase rather than persistent inflation.
Core PCE inflation is just above 2% when excluding tariff effects, and ongoing disinflation is observed in services.
The effects of tariffs are expected to peak and then subside by mid-year, potentially allowing for policy loosening if labor market risks re-emerge.
Inflation expectations, both short- and long-term, remain consistent with the 2% target, reflecting confidence in a return to target.
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