ALPEK (ALPEKA) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2025 was marked by global overcapacity, pressured margins, and weak demand, resulting in a 30% YoY drop in comparable EBITDA to $489 million, slightly below guidance.

• Operating free cash flow improved 57% to $163 million, supported by disciplined CAPEX and working capital optimization.

• Strategic priorities included core business optimization, cost efficiency, financial flexibility, and growth in high-margin and emerging solutions.

• The spinoff and merger with Controladora Alpek was completed, creating a fully independent, streamlined entity.

• Major site rationalizations included the closure of the Reading recycling facility and relocation of PET capacity to more competitive assets.

Financial highlights

• Full-year comparable EBITDA was $489 million, down 30% YoY; 4Q25 EBITDA was $100 million, down 40% YoY and 27% QoQ.

• Polyester segment volume was 836,000 tons in 4Q25, down 10% sequentially and YoY; EBITDA fell 53% QoQ and 59% YoY.

• Plastics and chemicals volume was 184,000 tons in 4Q25, down 6% sequentially and 7% YoY; EBITDA rose 17% QoQ but was down 15% YoY.

• Net debt at year-end 2025 was $1.84 billion, with leverage at 4.4x net debt/EBITDA; pro forma leverage was 3.1x–3.9x adjusting for restructuring.

• Annual CAPEX was $170 million in 2025, with 2026 guidance at $130 million.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 guidance projects comparable EBITDA of $450–$500 million, volume of 4.5 million tons, CAPEX of $130 million, and operating free cash flow of $100–$150 million.

• Leverage is expected to stabilize around 3.5x by year-end 2026, with a long-term target of 2.5x.

• Modest improvement is expected in polyester margins, but plastics and chemicals profitability will be constrained by new capacity and weak demand.

• Emerging business segment is targeted to double in size over three years, with continued EBITDA contribution.

• Upside of $50 million EBITDA possible if favorable market variables materialize, such as higher PET margins, asset sales, or tariff benefits.