American Tower (AMT) KeyBanc Capital Markets Technology Leadership Forum summary

5G deployment and network evolution

• 5G rollout in the U.S. faced initial delays due to spectrum availability, with significant progress since 2021 as mid-band spectrum became accessible.

• Operators are now midway through 5G build-outs, with many covering over 50% of their target populations using a mix of low and mid-band frequencies.

• The transition to standalone 5G core is underway, enabling new applications and driving further demand, especially in private networks.

• Service demand is growing at a CAGR of 20%, and device adoption is accelerating, supporting new use cases.

• The next growth phase will focus on capacity expansion and densification, expected to intensify in the latter half of the decade.

Capital expenditure trends and network investment

• CapEx surged in 2021-2022 due to delayed spectrum and catch-up efforts, peaking above $40B before normalizing to $32-34B.

• Current spending remains above 4G-era levels, reflecting a normalization rather than a sharp decline.

• Upgrades now focus on radio, core, software, and fiber, with backhaul requirements increasing from 1 Gbps to 10 Gbps.

Technology advancements and densification

• Massive MIMO is fundamental for mid-band spectrum, especially in urban and suburban areas, enabling higher capacity and spectral efficiency.

• Densification will require more sites and amendments to existing infrastructure, with colocation becoming increasingly important for economic efficiency.

• Spectral efficiency has improved from 1-2 bits/Hz in 3G to tens of bits/Hz in 5G, but physical and economic limits will necessitate more sites.