Arco Vara (ARC1T) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 2025 saw stable and moderately recovering activity in the Estonian real estate market, with transaction volumes and prices stabilizing, especially in Tallinn's high-demand areas.

• The first public bond offering was oversubscribed more than twofold, marking the largest bond issue among Baltic-listed real estate developers.

• Strategic focus shifted to Estonia, with a planned exit from the Bulgarian market to enhance operational efficiency and value creation.

• Major developments advanced, including Luther Quarter, Rannakalda, Soodi 6, Spordi, and Arcojärve projects.

Financial highlights

• Revenue for the first nine months of 2025 was €5,624k, up €1,537k year-over-year.

• Operating profit (EBIT) reached €622k, compared to a €158k loss in the prior year; net profit was €214k versus a €845k loss.

• Q3 2025 revenue was €2,531k (Q3 2024: €2,154k); Q3 net profit was €256k (Q3 2024: €-157k).

• Total assets more than doubled to €93,933k, mainly due to new project acquisitions.

• Net debt increased to €47,407k, up €31,585k year-over-year, driven by Luther Quarter acquisition and bond issuance.

Outlook and guidance

• Moderate market recovery is expected in H1 2026, especially in new developments, if macroeconomic stability and lower interest rates persist.

• 2025 revenue forecast: €8.3m; net profit forecast: €0.3m. 2026 revenue forecast: €23.0m; net profit: €2.6m.

• Q4 2025 priorities include active sales, progressing developments, and presale preparations for Luther Quarter.