Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) Citigroup 2025 Basic Materials Conference summary

North America demand and outlook

• Achieved mid-single digit growth year-to-date, led by energy drinks and new entrants expanding distribution.

• Carbonated soft drinks and sparkling water also contributed to growth, though CSD growth moderated in the second half.

• 2026 expected to be a transition year with low single-digit market growth, with some headwinds from tariffs and contract resets.

• Most contracts are now long-term and commercially resolved, reducing near-term risk.

• Not significantly exposed to mass beer, which has seen weakness; can continues to take share from glass and plastic.

Brazil and Europe market trends

• Brazil saw volatility due to a cold winter and consumer pressure, but expects recovery in 2024 with World Cup and fiscal stimulus.

• Nearly all Brazil volume is beer; brewers expected to respond to recent weakness.

• Europe experienced low single-digit growth, supported by sustainability trends and innovation, with beer and soft drinks strong.

• Can is outgrowing glass in Europe, aided by higher energy costs for glass and regulatory pressures.

• Aluminum conversion costs were a headwind in 2023 but are expected to normalize by 2026.

Capacity, utilization, and investment

• North America and Europe both operated at high utilization rates, with Europe tighter in season and some room for operational improvement.

• No new capacity needed in the next year; ongoing debottlenecking and ramping in France and Germany.

• Specialty can formats (sleek, slim) are a strength across all regions, supporting innovation and growth.

• CapEx for 2023 guided at ~$1 billion, with future investments in Europe funded by free cash flow.

• Dividend policy unchanged; focus on organic investment and maintaining leverage just above 5x, with plans to deleverage as EBITDA grows.