Athabasca Oil (ATH) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 2024 production averaged 38,909 boe/d (98% liquids), up 8% year-over-year and 16% per share, with 30% year-over-year growth in adjusted funds flow per share.

• Strategic focus on low-decline thermal oil and self-funded Duvernay Energy, with robust free cash flow and significant capital returns.

• Over $800MM returned to shareholders since Fall 2021 through $415MM in share buybacks and $385MM in debt reduction.

• Maintained a net cash position of $135MM and total liquidity of $455MM as of September 30, 2024.

• Adjusted funds flow grew to $164MM ($0.30/share) in Q3 2024; net income for Q3 was $68.7MM.

Financial highlights

• Q3 2024 adjusted funds flow reached $164MM ($0.30/share), up 30% year-over-year.

• Q3 petroleum, natural gas, and midstream sales were $376.8MM; operating income was $180.2MM.

• Net cash position of $135MM and total liquidity of $455MM as of September 30, 2024.

• Market capitalization approximately $2.7B, with $200MM in term debt issued at 6.75% coupon maturing 2029.

• 2024 guidance: consolidated production 36,000–37,000 boe/d, adjusted funds flow ~$555MM, capital expenditures ~$270MM.

Outlook and guidance

• 2024–2027 free cash flow expected to exceed $1B at US$70 WTI, with >20% three-year CAGR in funds flow per share.

• Leismer brownfield expansion to 40,000 bbl/d underway, supporting long-term growth.

• 2024 return of capital commitment maintained, with 100% free cash flow returned via buybacks.

• 2024 capital program: ~$195MM for Thermal Oil, ~$75MM for Duvernay Energy, both fully funded within cash flow.

• Tax pools of $2.4B shelter cash taxes for the decade, supporting a tax-free horizon.