Aurizon (AZJ) Trading update summary

Volume performance

• Network volumes reached 173.5mt, up 2.6% year-on-year, though full-year volumes are expected below regulatory assumptions.

• Coal volumes increased 0.8% to 158.4mt, despite adverse weather affecting mine production in March.

• Bulk volumes rose 6.7% to 48.4mt, driven by higher grain and new contracts, partially offset by track outages and weather impacts.

• Containerised freight volumes grew 13.2% to 194,000 TEUs, with gains from new and existing customers, partly offset by track outages.

Fuel supply and cost management

• Diesel supply remained uninterrupted due to proactive incident management, despite market volatility.

• Diesel expenses are linked to international benchmarks and mostly recovered through customer contracts with fuel adjustment mechanisms.

• Temporary timing differences in fuel cost recovery are expected to negatively impact FY2026 EBITDA by about $10m, with recovery anticipated in future quarters.

Financial outlook and guidance

• FY2026 Group underlying EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $1,680m–$1,750m, with a full-year dividend of 22–23cps.

• Non-growth capex remains at $580m–$600m (including ~$30m transformation capital); growth capex at $100m–$150m.

• Network EBITDA expected to rise on higher regulatory revenue, offset by increased direct costs.

• Coal EBITDA forecast higher on volume growth and flat unit costs, though full-year yield expected lower due to mix.

• Bulk EBITDA to improve from non-recurrence of provisions and higher grain volumes.

• Other EBITDA to increase with better containerised freight contribution, offsetting prior legal settlements.

• Guidance assumes continued fuel availability and no major supply chain disruptions.