Aviva (AV) Q3 2025 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved 2026 Group financial targets a year early, driven by strong organic growth and rapid Direct Line integration, before any Direct Line contribution.

• Raised group ambitions with new three-year targets: 11% operating EPS CAGR, over 20% IFRS ROE by 2028, and more than £7bn in cash remittances for 2026-2028.

• Direct Line cost synergy target increased to £225m and capital synergies to over £0.5bn, with £40m run-rate cost synergies expected by year-end.

• Over £10bn returned to shareholders since 2020, with share price more than doubled.

• Continued focus on capital-light growth, with over 75% of operating profit expected from capital-light businesses by 2028.

Financial highlights

• Q3 General Insurance premiums up 12% to £10bn; UK & Ireland up 17%, Canada up 3%.

• Group undiscounted combined operating ratio improved to 94.4%; UK & Ireland at 93.8%, Canada at 95.4%.

• Full-year 2025 operating profit expected at ~£2.2bn, including ~£0.15bn from Direct Line.

• IFRS ROE expected around 17% for 2025, targeting over 20% by 2028.

• Solvency II cover ratio at 177% post-Direct Line acquisition.

Outlook and guidance

• New operating EPS target of 11% CAGR through 2028, with baseline set at 55p for 2025.

• IFRS ROE target set at >20% by 2028.

• Cash remittances target raised to over £7bn for 2026-2028.

• Share buybacks to resume in March 2026, increased to reflect higher share count.

• Dividend growth to continue at mid-single digits, with interim dividend for 2025 increased by 10%.