Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference 2026 summary

Macroeconomic and geopolitical outlook

• Geopolitical risks, including Middle East instability, are viewed as short-term and not fundamentally altering the macro outlook for key markets.

• Turkey is most exposed to energy shocks, but inflation is expected to decrease if conflicts remain short-lived.

• Spain benefits from a diversified energy mix and tourism, cushioning against energy price shocks.

• Mexico's dynamics are driven more by US relations and internal factors than by global energy shocks.

• Diversification, low leverage, and leading franchises are cited as structural advantages supporting resilience.

Strategic priorities and digital transformation

• Emphasis on digitalization, sustainability, and innovation, including a focused AI strategy, as key growth drivers.

• AI adoption is managed through a top-down agenda, with 60% of employees using AI tools daily.

• Resource allocation is prioritized via a Single Development Agenda to ensure strategic focus.

• Digital transformation has enabled significant client acquisition and improved customer experience.

Regional performance and outlook

• Mexico's macro outlook upgraded, with GDP growth forecast at 1.8% and strong FDI and export performance.

• NII guidance for Mexico is mid- to high-single-digit growth, supported by positive activity and digital leadership.

• Spain shows robust loan growth, especially in enterprise and consumer segments, with disciplined cost management.

• Turkey expected to see lower inflation and interest rates, with profitability outpacing peers and focus on cost of funding.