Banco de Sabadell (SAB) Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference 2026 summary

Strategic review and recent developments

• Hostile takeover bid increased employee pride, strengthened the brand, and deepened client relationships.

• Retail customer acquisition slowed during the bid period but has since recovered; SME asset growth was softer than expected but no client losses occurred.

• Sale of TSB was considered a strong, independent value-creating move, regardless of the takeover context.

• Appetite for M&A exists, but no near-term deals are expected among mid-sized banks due to strong capital and governance positions.

• If industry consolidation opportunities arise, the bank is positioned to act as a consolidator in Spain.

Financial outlook and capital management

• TSB sale expected to close end of April, with a €0.50/share special dividend planned for end of May.

• NII guidance for 2024 is over 1% growth, with loan growth assumptions of 6% and deposit growth of 3–4%.

• Loan growth breakdown: mortgages 3–4%, SMEs mid-single digit, corporate high single digit, consumer loans high teens.

• Board remains committed to distributing all capital above 13% CET1, with €2.5 billion in distributions guided for 2026–2027, plus the special dividend.

• SRTs remain a strategic tool for capital efficiency, with ongoing demand and four active programs supporting capital release.

Market environment and risk

• Middle East uncertainty could slightly reduce GDP and loan volumes, but higher rates may offset NII impact; direct and indirect regional exposures are minimal.

• No significant risk impact expected from current geopolitical events; metals and mining exposure is below 1% of the book.

• Asset quality concerns from AI-driven disruption are not currently material; European labor market structure seen as a buffer.