Billerud (BILL) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2024 saw improved results over 2023, with strong performance in North America and challenging conditions in Europe due to weak consumer demand and high pulpwood costs.

• Net sales grew 5% for the year, with Q4 delivering 20% net sales growth, driven by both regions and most categories.

• Profitability improved significantly, with a 13% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q4, up 5 percentage points year-over-year.

• Efficiency enhancement program delivered SEK 840 million in 2024, nearing the SEK 1.5 billion target ahead of schedule.

• Dividend proposal of SEK 3.5 per share, up 75% from last year, in line with policy.

Financial highlights

• Full-year 2024 net sales rose 5% to SEK 43,453m; Q4 net sales increased 20% to SEK 11,468m.

• Adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was SEK 5,167m (+43% YoY); Q4 adjusted EBITDA up 86% to SEK 1,443m.

• EPS for 2024 was SEK 7.02, up 260% year-over-year; Q4 EPS at SEK 3.24.

• Operating profit (EBIT) for 2024 reached SEK 2,561m, up 380% year-over-year.

• Net leverage reduced to 1x EBITDA, the lowest in recent years.

Outlook and guidance

• Q1 2025 expected to see solid market in North America and normal conditions in Europe, except for cartonboard and coated liner, which remain weak.

• Q1 2025 sales volumes in Europe expected to be 30,000-60,000 tons lower due to high Q4 pulp sales and elevated customer inventories, with normalization anticipated in Q2.

• Announced price increases on containerboard, sack paper, and coated freesheet rolls to benefit Q2 and beyond.

• Input costs expected to rise, mainly for wood in Europe and logistics in the US.

• 2025 CapEx guidance at SEK 3.5 billion, with SEK 1.3 billion strategic CapEx focused on North American paperboard evolution.