Blue Bird (BLBD) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record fiscal 2024 results, with adjusted EBITDA more than doubling to $183M and margins reaching 13.6%, surpassing guidance and prior records.

• Net orders rose 16% year-over-year, with order backlog exceeding 4,800 units and a robust $735M value.

• Alternative powered buses accounted for 58% of sales, with EV sales up nearly 30% and a record EV backlog of 630 units.

• Significant operational improvements, including productivity gains, lean manufacturing, and facility upgrades, reduced build time and increased throughput.

• Investments in people, processes, and facilities supported record performance and future growth.

Financial highlights

• Full-year revenue reached $1.35B, up 19% year-over-year, with units sold increasing to 9,000.

• Adjusted EBITDA was $183M (13.6% margin), more than double the prior year, and adjusted net income was $115.3M, up $81M year-over-year.

• Adjusted diluted EPS was $3.46, more than tripling year-over-year.

• Q4 revenue hit a record $350M, with adjusted EBITDA of $41M and adjusted net income of $25.8M.

• Adjusted free cash flow for the year was $99M, exceeding the 50% of EBITDA target.

Outlook and guidance

• Fiscal 2025 guidance: revenue of $1.4–$1.5B, adjusted EBITDA of $190–$210M (13.6–14% margin), and free cash flow of $40–$60M after $50M extraordinary CapEx for new plant.

• EV unit sales expected to grow to 1,150 in 2025, supported by nearly $2B in EPA funding.

• Long-term targets: 14% margin in 2026–2027, volumes up to 10,000 units, and $225M EBITDA; by 2028+, revenue of $1.85–$2B, 11,000–12,000 units (4,000–5,000 EVs), and $270–$300M+ EBITDA.

• Profitable growth expected to accelerate in H2 FY2025, driven by product mix and EV adoption.

• Guidance includes ~$50M extraordinary CAPEX for manufacturing expansion.