Bubs Australia (BUB) H1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Revenue increased 14% year-over-year to $55.5 million, driven by a 48% surge in US revenue and expanded store presence, while Australia and China revenues declined due to supply constraints.

• Underlying EBITDA improved to $4.4 million from a loss of $0.7 million, with reported EBITDA at $3.0 million, reflecting operational improvements despite higher air freight and tariff costs.

• Gross margin held at 48%, reflecting premium brand positioning and improved inventory management, though slightly down from over 50% in the prior period.

• Discontinued non-core food portfolio to focus on core infant formula business and optimize performance in Australia.

• Strategic initiatives aligned with 2030 strategy pillars, including transformation office launch and upweighted digital marketing.

Financial highlights

• US revenue surged 48% year-over-year to $34.2 million, now the largest and most profitable region, while China revenue declined 27% to $7.5 million and Australia fell 9% to $9.5 million.

• Gross margin at 48% for the half year, outperforming guidance of 40%-45% despite air freight and tariff impacts.

• Operating expenses to revenue ratio improved to 44% from 52% year-over-year, with total operating expenses decreasing.

• Cash and cash equivalents at period end were $9.9 million, down from $17.4 million at June 2025, due to inventory investment.

• Net working capital rose to $33.4 million, supporting inventory expansion.

Outlook and guidance

• FY26 revenue guidance upgraded to $120 million–$125 million, representing 22%-27% growth over the prior period.

• Gross profit margin forecasted in the 40%-45% range for FY26.

• Underlying EBITDA guidance raised to $9 million–$11 million for FY26.

• Progressing toward permanent FDA approval for US market access, with current sales allowed under Enforcement Discretion.

• Directors assume FDA approval and bank facility extension in their going concern assessment, but acknowledge material uncertainty if these are not achieved.