CaixaBank (CABK) Goldman Sachs 28th Annual European Financials conference summary

Macroeconomic and business environment

• Economic performance in Spain and Portugal is exceeding initial expectations, with GDP growth for Spain revised upwards to approach last year's 2.5% level, driven by strong personal consumption and employment.

• CapEx remains subdued but is expected to improve as business confidence grows, supporting a more positive outlook for lending and commercial activity.

Net interest income (NII) and margin outlook

• NII guidance for 2024 was raised to mid-single-digit growth, with upside seen for 2025 above the EUR 9.7 billion consensus, supported by higher rates, better lending volumes, and stable deposit costs.

• Mortgage portfolio deleveraging is stabilizing, and deposit funding costs are expected to remain low, with legacy low-yield assets maturing providing a future tailwind.

Lending and revenue diversification

• Loan growth is expected to align more closely with nominal GDP, with recent improvements driven by individuals, especially in mortgages and consumer lending.

• Wealth management and insurance remain key strengths, with market shares near or above 30% and ongoing efforts to increase product penetration among former Bankia clients.

• Fee income is stabilizing as maintenance fees are gradually waived, with expectations for this revenue stream to level off in 2024.