CareDx (CDNA) Jefferies 2024 Global Healthcare Conference summary

Leadership insights and strategic focus

• New CEO highlights strong team, robust clinical evidence, and deep patient and KOL engagement in transplantation.

• Insurance background enables strategic approaches to payer dynamics and reimbursement optimization.

• Multi-product portfolio allows for better leverage in negotiations and operational efficiency across transplant centers.

• Focused transplant market enables pan-organ field force and supports long-term profitability.

Financial guidance and operational outlook

• Visibility has improved significantly since last year, with stable and growing volumes and a conservative 2024 guidance that was raised after Q1.

• Draft LCD is the main remaining area of uncertainty, expected to be finalized by August; current guidance already factors in its impact.

• Adjusted EBITDA guidance was increased, driven by revenue growth and stable OpEx, with a path to profitability expected in 2025.

• ASP deterioration is behind, with 2024 guidance assuming low single-digit improvement.

Market and regulatory developments

• CMS's IOTA model aims to increase kidney transplants by 50% in half of US centers over six years, starting in early 2025.

• Product suite, including software for waitlist management and quality reporting, positions the company to support centers in the IOTA program.

• No significant OpEx needed to prepare for IOTA; program could accelerate transplant market growth to low teens percentage annually.