Centene (CNC) Barclays 27th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2025 summary

Financial performance and guidance

• Reaffirmed fully adjusted EPS floor for 2025 of greater than $7.25, with confidence in earnings power for the year and beyond.

• Targeting Q1 adjusted EPS in the mid to high $2 range, above consensus, despite $130 million in unexpected flu-related Medicaid costs.

• Full-year EPS guidance incorporates elevated Q1 flu costs and maintains a positive outlook.

• Expecting Medicaid segment HBR to improve in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half.

• Standalone Part D business guided to 1% margins while growing PDP membership by about 15%.

Policy and regulatory landscape

• Engaged in ongoing discussions with lawmakers on Medicaid reform, ACA subsidies, and work requirements, with a focus on maintaining access and economic stability.

• Policy-based benchmark budget framework is gaining momentum, shifting focus to deficit savings from reforms.

• Work requirements and FMAP changes are under discussion, with impacts depending on state-level implementation.

• New proposed rules on affordability and integrity aim to reinforce program integrity and reduce fraud.

Market trends and operational updates

• January effectuated exchange enrollment exceeded 5 million, with February slightly above expectations; guidance factors in potential FTR impacts.

• Strong market position in ACA Silver tier, with scenario planning for potential changes in enhanced subsidies.

• Working with state insurance departments to file two sets of 2026 rates, reflecting possible sunsetting of enhanced APTCs.

• Expiring enhanced APTCs could drive mid to high single-digit percentage rate increases, on top of normal trends.