ConocoPhillips (COP) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Closed the Marathon Oil acquisition, expanding low-cost U.S. unconventional inventory and targeting over $1 billion in run-rate synergies by end of 2025.

• Achieved 4% year-over-year production growth in 2024, with mid-single-digit growth in Lower 48 and new production in Alaska, China, and Norway.

• Returned $9.1 billion to shareholders in 2024 via $5.5 billion repurchases and $3.6 billion dividends, and set a $10 billion shareholder return target for 2025.

• Delivered a 123% organic reserve replacement ratio and a total reserve replacement ratio of 244% for 2024.

• Progressed $2 billion disposition target with $600 million in signed agreements for noncore asset sales.

Financial highlights

• 2024 adjusted earnings were $9.2 billion ($7.79/share); Q4 adjusted earnings were $2.4 billion ($1.98/share).

• Generated $20.3 billion CFO in 2024; Q4 CFO was $5.4 billion, including $250 million in AP LNG distributions.

• Capital expenditures were $3.3 billion in Q4 and $12.9 billion guidance for 2025.

• Ended 2024 with $6.4 billion in cash and short-term investments, plus $1.1 billion in long-term investments.

• Q4 2024 production was 2,183 MBOED, up 281 MBOED year-over-year; full-year 2024 production was 1,987 MBOED, up 161 MBOED.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 production guidance: 2.34–2.38 million BOE/d, including impacts from turnarounds and weather.

• Full-year 2025 capital spending guidance: $12.9 billion, with $3 billion for long-cycle projects.

• Targeting $10 billion in shareholder returns for 2025 ($4 billion dividends, $6 billion buybacks).

• Full-year adjusted operating costs expected at $10.9–$11.1 billion; DD&A at $11.3–$11.5 billion.

• Expecting $3.5 billion incremental CFO and $6 billion incremental annual sustaining free cash flow from major projects post-2025 at $70 WTI.