CSX (CSX) JPMorgan Industrials Conference 2026 summary

Network performance and market impacts

• Network performance has been resilient despite significant weather disruptions early in the year, with recovery efforts leading to strong service levels.

• Weather particularly impacted aggregates, waste, and coal, with frozen coal causing operational challenges but recovery underway.

• Higher energy prices and volatility are influencing demand in chemicals, plastics, metals, and intermodal segments.

• Domestic coal demand is expected to remain strong, with utility retirements under close watch due to potential extensions.

• Fuel price volatility is creating a $20–$30 million headwind for the current quarter, but recovery is expected over the year due to surcharge mechanisms.

Industrial and end-market outlook

• Industrial production remains flat, with automotive and housing facing ongoing headwinds and limited signs of near-term improvement.

• Automotive production and sales are forecasted to decline, with a major auto plant offline for retooling, impacting volumes.

• Housing-related business, especially building products, shows little optimism for 2026, with some hope for improvement by 2027.

• Infrastructure investment, particularly IIJA spending, is supporting minerals, aggregates, and cement demand, expected to peak this year.

• Metals business shows robust growth in scrap and infrastructure-related segments, despite mixed performance in other areas.

Pricing, supply chain, and channel partner dynamics

• Rail pricing is expected to be stronger on a same-store sales basis than in 2025, though mix effects from lower RPU segments will influence results.

• Channel partners and shippers are cautiously optimistic, with increased bid activity and more opportunities for intermodal conversion.

• Truck market improvements and lagged pricing adjustments are influencing rail pricing strategies, with contract timing affecting realization.

• Consistent, reliable service is emphasized as the key factor for converting truckload business to rail, supported by consultative tools and direct engagement.