Ecora Royalties (ECOR) H2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Critical minerals comprised the majority of portfolio contribution for the first time in 2025, with base metals reaching 50% and expected to grow to ~85% by 2030, marking a major inflection point for the portfolio.

• Portfolio contribution was $57.0m, down from $63.2m in 2024, but free cash flow rose 24% year-over-year to $27.4m, driven by increased base metals exposure and rapid deleveraging after the $50m Mimbula copper stream acquisition.

• Critical minerals exposures now represent the majority of full-year portfolio contribution, with a 650% growth in contribution since 2020.

• Portfolio is underpinned by operations with mine lives measured in decades, reducing historical volatility and positioned to benefit from strong commodity fundamentals.

Financial highlights

• Headline portfolio contribution was $57.0m, down 10% year-over-year, but base metals now contribute 50% of the portfolio for the first time.

• Adjusted earnings per share fell to 8.86c from 11.43c year-over-year, impacted by higher financing costs from the Mimbula transaction and currency movements.

• Free cash flow improved to $27.4m, driven by a declining portion of Kestrel, which carries a higher tax rate.

• Dividend per share was 2.00c, down from 2.81c in 2024, with a proposed final dividend of 1.4c.

• Net debt increased slightly to $85.5m at year-end, reflecting the $50m Mimbula acquisition, but declined from just under $125m post-acquisition.

Outlook and guidance

• Volume growth expected in 2026 from key base metal royalties, with multiple near-term catalysts in the development portfolio.

• 2026 guidance for Kestrel is 1.1 million tonnes, with final meaningful volumes expected that year.

• Voisey's Bay expected to see 12%-25% year-on-year volume growth in 2026.

• Mantos Blancos production expected to be down 10% in 2026 due to lower copper head grades, but rebound anticipated in 2027.

• Net debt projected to fall to $53m by end of 2026 and $27m by end of 2027, with continued deleveraging supported by commodity price tailwinds.