Erste Group Bank (EBS) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Acquisition of a 49% stake in Santander Bank Polska announced, expected to drive EPS uplift from 2026 and enhance growth profile; first-time consolidation targeted around year-end 2025.

• Strong top-line performance led to a guidance upgrade, with net interest income and fees up year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, offsetting lower trading results and one-off rental income in the prior year.

• Net profit reached EUR 1,665 million for the first six months of 2025, up 2.2% year-over-year.

• Operating expenses increased mainly due to higher personnel, IT, marketing, and consulting costs.

• Risk costs rose slightly due to lower overlay releases, but asset quality remains robust.

Financial highlights

• Net profit for Q2 2025 reached EUR 921 million; H1 2025 net profit up 2.2% year-over-year to EUR 1,665 million.

• Net interest income exceeded EUR 1.9 billion in Q2, up 2.7% year-to-date; net fee and commission income up 8.3% year-over-year.

• Return on tangible equity rose to 19.5% in Q2 25 from 17.2% in Q2 24.

• Cost/income ratio at 47.5% year-to-date, within guidance of below 50%.

• Earnings per share reached €2.11 in Q2 25, up from €1.87 in Q2 24.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance upgraded: loan growth target raised to above 5%, NII to grow, fee income to grow over 5%, CIR to below 50%, risk costs to about 20 bps, and ROTE to above 15%.

• Return on tangible equity outlook raised to above 15% for 2025; 2026 projections confirmed at 19% RoTE and over 20% EPS uplift.

• CET1 ratio expected to exceed 18.25% before Santander Bank Polska consolidation.

• CET1 ratio target set at above 18.25% for 2025, with a temporary reduction in dividend payout to support the Santander Polska acquisition.

• Risks to guidance include political, regulatory, geopolitical, economic, and health factors, as well as indirect effects from international conflicts.