Federal Reserve System (FED) FOMC Meeting summary

Economic outlook and projections

• Economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, with resilient consumer spending and ongoing business investment, though housing remains weak and job gains are low.

• Real GDP is projected to rise 2.4% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025, slightly stronger than previous forecasts.

• The unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.4% by year-end, with job gains low due to reduced labor force growth and unemployment little changed.

• Inflation has eased from mid-2022 highs but remains above the 2% target, with total PCE inflation projected at 2.7% for 2024 and 2.2% for 2025.

• Higher energy prices from Middle East disruptions are expected to temporarily push up inflation, but the duration and impact remain uncertain.

Monetary policy stance and decisions

• The federal funds rate target range is held at 3.5%-3.75%, viewed as appropriate for current conditions.

• Interest rate paid on reserve balances is held at 3.65 percent, effective March 19, 2026.

• Standing overnight repo operations set at 3.75 percent; reverse repo at 3.5 percent with a $160 billion per-counterparty limit.

• Treasury bill purchases and reinvestments will continue to maintain ample reserves.

• The primary credit rate remains at 3.75 percent.

Policy guidance and committee actions

• Policy decisions will remain data-dependent and made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, with no preset course.

• Most participants still see a bias toward rate cuts this year, contingent on progress in reducing inflation, especially as tariff effects fade.

• Most members voted to maintain the current policy stance; one member preferred a 0.25% rate cut.

• The committee is balancing downside risks to the labor market with upside risks to inflation, maintaining a mildly restrictive stance.

• Assessments will consider labor market, inflation, financial, and international developments.