Gentrack Group (GTK) Investor update summary

Revenue and earnings guidance update

• FY26 revenue is expected between NZD 229–238 million, below previous guidance, due to delayed project deals, resulting in a 4–8% drop from prior forecasts.

• Recurring revenues are projected to grow over 10% to about $174m, while non-recurring revenue will decline.

• H1 FY26 revenue is anticipated at approximately $110m, with $85m recurring.

• Full-year EBITDA is forecasted between $13.5m and $20m, with the midpoint now 7%, down from consensus of 13.5%, reflecting lower project revenue and continued investment.

• Delayed deals are not lost but shifted by about a quarter, impacting both first half and full-year results.

Pipeline and growth outlook

• Pipeline includes 10 deals representing about 30 million meter points, with a target to win 3–4 deals in the calendar year, now expected to close later than initially planned.

• Historical top-line growth has exceeded 15% CAGR over five years, supporting confidence in midterm targets.

• Medium-term revenue target remains at over 15% CAGR, with an EBITDA margin goal of 15%-20%.

• Expansion into Asia and Europe, a maturing g2 product, and a growing airports business are seen as key growth drivers.

Strategic priorities and business model evolution

• Management is maintaining investment in product development, AI capabilities, and sales despite near-term margin pressure, prioritizing long-term growth and global leadership over short-term margin optimization.

• Continued investment in international expansion and product development.

• Transitioning to a business model with higher recurring revenue and lower onboarding costs via g2.0.