GFL Environmental (GFL) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.6% in Q3 2025, the highest in company history, with revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted free cash flow all exceeding expectations despite macroeconomic and commodity headwinds.

• Organic price and volume growth reached 7.3%, with pricing accelerating to 6.3% sequentially; fourth consecutive quarter of positive volume growth.

• Raised full-year 2025 guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the second time this year.

• Completed recapitalization of GIP, returning $585 million to shareholders and adding $175 million to the balance sheet, with $200 million repatriated in Q3 2025.

• Repurchased $350 million of shares in Q3 and $2.8 billion year-to-date, representing over 10% of issued and outstanding subordinate voting shares.

Financial highlights

• Q3 2025 revenue was $1,694.2 million, up 9% year-over-year, with 6.3% from core pricing and 1% from positive volume.

• Adjusted EBITDA increased 12% to $535.1 million in Q3 2025; margin expanded by 90 basis points year-over-year to 31.6%.

• Adjusted free cash flow was $181 million for the quarter, exceeding plan due to EBITDA outperformance and CapEx timing.

• Net income from continuing operations was $108.1 million in Q3 2025, up from $41.6 million in Q3 2024.

• For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, revenue was $4,929.5 million (up 10.2% excluding divestitures), adjusted EBITDA was $1,476.3 million (up 13.4%), and adjusted free cash flow was $331.3 million (up $95.9 million year-over-year).

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year 2025 revenue now expected between $6.575 billion and $6.6 billion; adjusted EBITDA about $1.975 billion, up nearly 3% from original guidance.

• Adjusted free cash flow guidance remains at $750 million.

• Net leverage expected in the low-to-mid 3.0x range by year-end 2025.

• 2026 expected to benefit from 150 basis points of M&A revenue rollover and 75 basis points from EPR ramp.

• Double-digit EBITDA growth anticipated for 2026, with further upside from M&A and potential recovery in commodities and volumes.