Harley-Davidson (HOG) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2024 performance was significantly impacted by cyclical headwinds, high interest rates, and weakened consumer confidence, resulting in a 7% global retail sales decline and a 15% drop in Q4 retail sales year-over-year.

• Full-year diluted EPS was $3.44, down 29% year-over-year; Q4 diluted EPS loss was $0.93; consolidated revenue declined 11% to $5.19 billion.

• U.S. Touring segment market share rose to 74.5%, the highest since 2019, with North America Touring, Trike, and CVO retail sales up over 8%.

• Global motorcycle shipments fell 17% for the year and 53% in Q4; dealer inventory of new motorcycles ended the year down over 4% year-over-year.

• Strategic focus remained on core, profitable product segments, cost productivity, inventory management, and digital investments.

Financial highlights

• Full-year consolidated revenue was $5.19 billion, down 11%; Q4 revenue down 35% year-over-year to $688 million.

• Full-year operating income was $417 million, down 47%; Q4 consolidated operating loss was $193 million, compared to a $21 million loss in Q4 2023.

• HDMC full-year revenue dropped 15% to $4.12 billion; operating income was $278 million (margin 6.7%), down 58%.

• HDFS full-year revenue increased 9% to $1.04 billion; operating income up 6% to $248 million (margin 24%).

• LiveWire posted a full-year operating loss of $110 million on 612 units sold; revenue down 31% year-over-year.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance expects flat retail sales, with performance skewed to the second half; HDMC revenue and wholesale units expected flat to down 5%.

• HDMC operating income margin expected between 7%-8%; EPS flat to down 5% from 2024.

• HDFS operating income forecasted to decline 10%-15% due to higher borrowing costs and lower asset levels.

• LiveWire expects 1,000-1,500 unit sales and an operating loss of $70-$80 million in 2025, with cash burn reduced by 40%.

• Capital investments planned at $225-$250 million; $350 million in share repurchases planned for 2025.