HelloFresh (HFG) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Strategic reset in 2024 prioritized efficiency and margin over volume, launching a €300 million program to improve unit economics and cut fixed costs, especially in Meal Kits, with ~80% of initiatives implemented by year-end.

• Group revenue for FY 2025 declined 9% year-over-year in constant currency to €6.8 billion, reflecting a deliberate shift to efficiency and higher-value customers, with stable order volumes from loyal customers.

• Meal Kits profitability and customer quality improved, with sequential narrowing of revenue declines, while Ready-to-Eat (RTE) faced operational setbacks in the U.S. but showed recovery signs by year-end.

• Investments in product quality, menu variety, and customer experience (The ReFresh program) drove higher customer lifetime value and NPS, despite price increases.

• Free cash flow turned positive at €18.9 million, the highest since 2021.

Financial highlights

• FY 2025 adjusted EBITDA (AEBITDA) was €422.8 million, up 14% year-over-year in constant currency, within guidance.

• Meal Kit adjusted EBITDA margin reached 13.5%, the highest since the pandemic, up nearly 4 percentage points from 2024.

• Contribution margin expanded to 26.8% for the year, a 100 basis point improvement.

• Orders declined 12.3% year-over-year, but tenured customers (over 50 orders) now represent 51% of Meal Kit orders, up from 42% in 2024.

• Average order value increased 3.5% year-over-year in constant currency, driven by add-ons and reduced incentives.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 net revenue expected to decline 3–6% in constant currency, including a ~1% negative impact from Q1 winter storms.

• Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 is €375–425 million, factoring in a €25 million weather-related Q1 impact.

• Meal Kit margins to remain double-digit; RTE targeted to return to full-year profitability.

• Sequential improvement in revenue and profitability expected each quarter in 2026, with RTE growth engine restart as a key focus.

• Winter storms in Q1 2026 estimated to negatively impact revenue by ~€20 million and AEBITDA by ~€25 million.