HelloFresh (HFG) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Strategic reset in 2024 prioritized efficiency and margin, launching a €300 million program to improve unit economics and cut fixed costs, especially in Meal Kits, with ~80% of initiatives implemented by year-end.

• Meal Kits saw improved profitability and customer quality, with net revenue declines narrowing sequentially; RTE faced operational setbacks in the U.S. but showed recovery by year-end.

• Investments in product quality, menu variety, and customer experience (The ReFresh program) funded by structural savings led to higher customer lifetime value and NPS.

• Severe winter storms in Q1 2026 caused significant operational disruption, impacting revenue and EBITDA.

• FY 2025 revenue was €6.8 billion, a 9% decline in constant currency, with stable order volumes from loyal customers.

Financial highlights

• Group revenue for 2025 was €6.8 billion, a 9% decline in constant currency year-over-year; Q4 revenue was €1.55 billion, down 14.4% year-over-year.

• Adjusted EBITDA (AEBITDA) reached €422.8 million, up 14% year-over-year in constant currency, within guidance.

• Meal Kit adjusted EBITDA margin hit 13.5%, highest since the pandemic, up nearly 4 percentage points from 2024.

• Free cash flow turned positive post-lease at €18.9 million, highest since 2021.

• Group contribution margin for 2025 was 26.8%, up 1 percentage point year-over-year.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 net revenue growth expected at -6% to -3% in constant currency, including a ~1% negative impact from Q1 storms.

• Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 is €375–425 million, factoring in a €25 million weather-related hit in Q1.

• Meal Kit expected to maintain double-digit adjusted EBITDA margin; RTE targeted to return to full-year profitability.

• Sequential improvement in revenue and profitability expected each quarter in 2026 for both Meal Kits and RTE.

• Winter storms in Q1 2026 estimated to negatively impact revenue by €20 million and AEBITDA by €25 million.