ICF International (ICFI) Sidoti's Year End Virtual Investor Conference summary

Company overview and business mix

• Generates $1.9 billion in annual revenue with 9,000 professionals and a diversified client base across commercial, state, local, international, and U.S. government sectors.

• Business is divided into Energy, Infrastructure, Disaster Recovery, and Environment (51%), Health and Social Programs (34%), and Security and Other (15%).

• Non-federal clients account for 55% of revenue, expected to grow to over 60% by 2026, driven by energy and international business growth.

Growth drivers and market trends

• Commercial energy growth is fueled by data center expansion, AI, electrification, and grid modernization, with 75% of business focused on utility energy efficiency programs.

• State and local business growth is led by disaster recovery and climate initiatives, with new contracts and expanded work in multiple states.

• International business, especially with the European Commission and U.K. government, is expected to ramp up due to new framework contracts.

Impact of federal changes and revenue outlook

• Federal revenue loss in 2025 was mainly due to two contracts (USAID and ENERGY STAR), totaling a $125 million impact, but most terminations have stabilized since May.

• Government shutdown caused $8 million per month in lost revenue, but work has resumed and most revenue is expected to recover by early 2026.

• Federal IT modernization is expected to see low single-digit growth in 2026, while programmatic policy work remains uncertain and may recover later.