Indivior (INDV) Investor Update summary

Revised fiscal 2024 guidance and financial performance

• FY 2024 net revenue guidance lowered to $1,150m–$1,215m due to ongoing Medicaid disenrollments and slower SUBLOCADE growth.

• Q2 2024 net revenue expected between $295m and $303m, up 8% year-over-year at the midpoint.

• SUBLOCADE FY 2024 net revenue now expected at $765m–$805m, up 25% at midpoint versus FY 2023.

• Medicaid disenrollments, initially expected to end in Q2, are now projected to persist through Q3, with stabilization anticipated in Q4.

• Long-term targets reaffirmed: $1bn net revenue run rate by end of 2025 and over $1.5bn in peak net revenue.

Product portfolio and operational changes

• Immediate discontinuation of PERSERIS sales and marketing due to anticipated market changes and lack of financial viability.

• PERSERIS supply will continue for patient care, but dedicated sales force will be eliminated, reducing headcount by about 130.

• Total charges for PERSERIS discontinuation expected at $65m, with $20m in cash costs; annual operating expense savings of $50m anticipated.

• OPVEE adoption lags expectations; FY 2024 revenue mainly from BARDA contract delivery (~$8m).

• SUBLOCADE channel inventory levels remain historically low, attributed to increased supply chain efficiency and shorter lead times.

Market and operational dynamics

• Medicaid disenrollments reached 23 million by end Q2, up from 19 million in Q1, impacting patient starts and refills.

• SUBLOCADE maintains a 77% share of new patient starts in the LAI market, but growth is challenged by high patient churn and Medicaid coverage disruptions.

• Criminal justice system channel is driving disproportionate growth for SUBLOCADE, up 85% year-over-year, and now represents 25% of revenue.

• Slower activation of new justice system accounts is due to administrative hurdles, not increased competition.

• SUBOXONE film market share continues to erode at a historic rate of 1–2 percentage points per year.