InPost (INPST) Q3 2024 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Parcel volume grew 25% year-over-year to 262.5 million in Q3 2024, with group revenue up 22.6% to PLN 2,535 million and Adjusted EBITDA margin at 33.6%; Poland and international markets saw 21% and 32% volume growth, respectively.

• Adjusted EBITDA increased 33.4% year-over-year to PLN 852.7 million, with margin reaching 34% at group level and 46% in Poland.

• International segment's parcel volume rose 32%, revenue up 23%, and Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 14.3%.

• Record expansion of the APM network, now at nearly 79,000 points and over 43,000 APMs, with over 10,000 new deployments YoY.

• Strengthened leadership and market share in Poland, UK, and France, outpacing e-commerce market growth.

Financial highlights

• Q3 2024 revenue: PLN 2,535.2 million (+22.6% YoY); Adjusted EBITDA: PLN 852.7 million (+33.4% YoY); margin: 33.6%.

• Net profit from continuing operations up 71% YoY for 9M 2024, margin improved from 8.0% to 11.2%.

• Free cash flow for Q3 2024 was PLN 211.6 million; Poland generated PLN 1,002.1 million FCF for 9M 2024, with a 47% conversion rate.

• Capex rose 66.5% YoY to PLN 398.5 million in Q3, with capex intensity at 15.7% of revenue.

• Net leverage improved to 1.9x at Q3 2024 end, down from 2.2x at 2023 year-end.

Outlook and guidance

• Group revenue and volume growth expected to align; Adjusted EBITDA margin to improve YoY, with Poland stabilizing at mid-40s and Mondial Relay up 200-300bps.

• Q4 2024 volume growth guidance: mid-teens in Poland, ~20% outside Poland, high-teens at group level.

• Full-year CapEx expected between PLN 1.4–1.5 billion, with capex intensity in low teens.

• Positive FCF and further deleveraging expected, with ongoing evaluation of strategic growth options.