Kasikornbank Public Company (KBANK) Investor Update summary

Strategic priorities and operating environment

• Facing significant economic and geopolitical headwinds, with medium-term challenges to targets.

• Committed to double-digit ROE and sustainable shareholder returns, with timing dependent on macroeconomic conditions.

• Strengthening capital buffer with a medium-term CET1 target of at least 15%.

• Dividend payout raised to at least 50%, aiming for 50-60% in the medium term.

• Thai GDP growth revised down to 1.5% for the year, with tourism and household debt as main risks.

Economic and macroeconomic outlook

• Policy rate expected to be cut to 1.5% in the second half, with potential for further decreases.

• GDP growth forecasts have been revised down significantly since late 2023.

• Lower rates and GDP have negative implications for exports, investment, consumption, and tourism.

• Asset quality remains stable with strong cost control despite macro headwinds.

• Thailand's inflation remained negative for a third consecutive month in June, raising deflation concerns.

Global trade and tariff developments

• Modified US reciprocal tariffs announced August 1, 2025, range from 10% to 41% across dozens of trade partners, impacting global trade flows.

• Japan and the EU secured 15% US tariffs, shielding key industries and boosting market sentiment.

• Thailand's US tariff rate was reduced from 36% to 19%, improving its export outlook and narrowing expected contraction in 2H25.

• Nearly 70% of Thailand's top 15 exports to the US are exempt from reciprocal tariffs, though Section 232 tariffs remain a risk.

• Foreign tourist arrivals in Thailand are projected to decline to 32.2 million in 2025, mainly due to fewer Chinese visitors.