Keyera (KEY) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2025 was a transformational year with record fee-based segment margins, three major growth projects sanctioned, a strategic Simonette acquisition, and the announced $5.15 billion Plains Canadian NGL business acquisition expected to close in Q1 2026.

• Achieved 7% CAGR in distributable cash flow per share and 6% CAGR in dividends per share since 2008, demonstrating resilience and a strong balance sheet.

• Fully integrated liquids infrastructure platform supports growth from Montney and Duvernay, with a deep inventory of capital-efficient projects.

• Leadership structure was reorganized to enhance competitiveness and execution ahead of the Plains acquisition closing.

• Focused on optimizing the asset base and preparing for integration of new assets to drive long-term shareholder value.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $1.13 billion, or $1.16 billion excluding acquisition-related items; distributable cash flow was $735 million ($3.21/share), or $767 million ($3.35/share) excluding acquisition-related items.

• Net earnings for 2025 were $432 million, down from $487 million in 2024, mainly due to lower Marketing segment contributions and acquisition/integration costs.

• Dividends declared totaled $486 million ($2.12/share), with a payout ratio of 66% (63% adjusted for acquisition-related items).

• Net debt to adjusted EBITDA at year-end was 1.8x, below the 2.5–3.0x target, with investment grade credit ratings and $2.3 billion in cash.

• Gathering & Processing and Liquids Infrastructure segments delivered record annual realized margins of $439 million and $593 million, respectively.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 stand-alone guidance (pre-Plains closing): growth capital expenditures of $400–$475 million, maintenance capital of $140–$160 million, and cash taxes of $60–$70 million, reflecting a decrease due to the AEF outage.

• Marketing segment margin guidance for 2026 will reflect a $110 million impact from the AEF outage, with updated guidance to be provided in Q1 2026.

• Plains acquisition expected to deliver $100 million in annual cost synergies and expand the NGL value chain across Canada and into the U.S.

• Pro forma guidance and comprehensive outlook for the combined platform to be issued after the Plains acquisition closes.

• Reiterated 7%-8% fee-for-service EBITDA growth outlook through 2027, supported by high take-or-pay contracts and sanctioned projects.