mBank (MBK) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record total quarterly revenues above PLN 3 billion in Q3 2024, with net profit reaching PLN 573 million, the highest since Q4 2022, and core bank ROE above 40%.

• Loan portfolio returned to growth, with a 5% year-on-year increase and historic mortgage loan sales over PLN 3.3 billion; deposits increased by 3.2% quarter on quarter.

• Accelerated Swiss franc mortgage settlements, with declining new and pending court cases and legal risks well-provisioned.

• Strategic initiatives include expanding digital platform access, launching new digital solutions, and enhancing personal financial management tools, now used by nearly 1.9 million clients.

• Issued a record EUR 500 million green bond to support MREL requirements and sustainable financing.

Financial highlights

• Total income in Q3 reached a historic high of PLN 3,150 million, up 9% quarter on quarter and 16.3% year on year; adjusted revenue growth was 1.9% quarter on quarter.

• Net interest income rose 18.8% year on year and 1.6% quarter on quarter to PLN 2,571 million; net interest margin at 4.3%.

• Net profit for Q3 was PLN 573 million, with ROE at 14.9%; cost/income ratio improved to 25.8%.

• Gross loans to customers increased 5% year on year to PLN 127.5 billion; customer deposits up 4.5% year on year to PLN 193.5 billion.

• Cost of risk remained below guidance at 62 bps.

Outlook and guidance

• Total income for 2024 expected to exceed PLN 11 billion, approaching PLN 12 billion; 2025 revenues projected slightly lower but well above PLN 11 billion.

• RWA expected to increase by PLN 6 billion in Q4 2024 due to regulatory model changes, with further 6% growth in 2025 from CRR 3.

• NII in Q4 expected to be slightly lower than Q3; net fee and commission income to grow steadily in 2025.

• Cost/income ratio to stay below 40% in 2025 despite cost growth.

• Cost of risk guided at 60 bps for 2024, midterm view at 80 bps.

• Polish GDP growth forecast at 3–3.5% in 2024 and 4% in 2025, with inflation expected to decline in 2025.