Mediobanca (MB) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Record FY 2023-24 results: revenues €3.6bn (up 9% YoY), net profit €1.27bn (up 24% YoY), EPS €1.53 (up 27% YoY), ROTE 14% (up 1pp), and DPS €1.07 (up 26% YoY); all divisions contributed to growth.

• Wealth Management and Insurance delivered double-digit revenue and profit increases, with WM TFAs near €100bn (up 13% YoY).

• Shareholder remuneration at sector-leading levels: €1.1bn distributed (up ~50% YoY), including €885m dividends and €200m share buybacks, with a new €385m buyback proposed.

• Robust capital generation (CET1 ratio at 16.1%), strong asset quality (gross NPL ratio at 2.5%, net NPLs at 0.8%), and cost/income ratio stable at 43%.

• Strategic focus on “One Brand – One Culture,” digital innovation, and ESG progress, including reduced financed emissions and increased diversity.

Financial highlights

• Revenues reached €3,607m (+9% YoY); net interest income €1,985m (+10% YoY); fees €939m (+11% YoY); net profit €1,273m (+24% YoY).

• Cost/income ratio at 43% (flat YoY); cost of risk at 48bps (down 4bps YoY); gross NPLs/loans at 2.5% (flat YoY).

• RORWA up 30bps YoY to 2.7%; CET1 ratio at 16.1% (up 20bps YoY); leverage ratio 7.1%.

• Total Financial Assets up 13% YoY to €99.4bn; customer loans stable at €52.4bn; funding up 5% YoY to €63.7bn.

• FY24 dividend per share €1.07 (+26% YoY); €385m new share buyback proposed for FY25.

Outlook and guidance

• FY25 targets: €9–10bn net new money in wealth management, flat RWAs, revenue growth (NII low single-digit, fees low double-digit), C/I ratio at 44%, CoR ~55bps.

• EPS expected to grow 6–8%; DPS to increase, with 70% payout and new €385m share buyback planned.

• Macro scenario: gradual rate cuts expected, with short-term rates to decrease by ~100bps in FY25; Italian GDP growth to remain modest.

• RWAs to remain stable even with Basel IV introduction.