Meridian Energy (MEL) Investor Day 2025 summary

Strategic context, outlook, and scenario planning

• Focus has shifted to security, affordability, and rapid sector change, with planning guided by 'Evo' (modest change) and 'Revo' (dynamic decarbonisation) scenarios, both projecting significant demand growth driven by industrial electrification, EV uptake, and data centers.

• Mature modelling framework underpins investment, factoring in inflow uncertainty, build costs, demand, and risk of shortage.

• Projected demand growth is constrained by development barriers and efficiency gains, with EV uptake expected to accelerate in the early 2030s.

• Levelised costs for wind and solar have risen due to inflation and global unrest but are expected to decline again, with solar likely to see greater cost reductions.

• Market equilibrium is expected with average prices of NZD120–130/MWh for the next 15 years, reflecting higher build and storage costs.

Portfolio strategy and risk management

• Flexibility and firming resources are critical as gas and thermal exit, with a focus on demand response, hydro development, and contingent storage to manage dry year risk.

• Swaptions have shifted from gas to coal and demand response, with Huntley and ENSIS contracts providing flexibility into the 2030s and 2040s.

• The integrated model and diverse portfolio allow for dynamic management of C&I and mass market exposure, with ongoing evaluation of recontracting and risk appetite.

• Hydro storage augmentation and improved access to contingent storage are key long-term risk mitigants, with estimated consumer savings of $527 million annually.

• Significant investment in flexibility and firming is required, with thermal generation needed for security of supply into the 2030s.

Retail transformation and customer strategy

• Retail is undergoing a NZD30 million digital transformation, migrating to a modern, cloud-native platform, with 34,000 customers already moved and full migration targeted by June next year.

• Flexibility products like the Smart Hot Water Plan have shifted 2,500 MWh out of peak and credited NZD880,000 to customers, with plans to scale further.

• Ambition to build the largest EV charging network by 2028, targeting 20%+ market share and NZD20 million annual revenue by 2030, with 396 charge points deployed and over 100 more in progress.

• Retail customer base has grown by 160,000 since 2018, with a 63% increase in net back growth and reduced cost to serve, driven by digital and data capabilities.

• Community programs have delivered NZD4.7 million to 80 projects, supporting energy efficiency and decarbonisation.