Metro Mining (MMI) Presentation summary

Market drivers and demand outlook

• Aluminum demand is projected to grow 40% from 2020 to 2030, outpacing global GDP, driven by transportation, EVs, batteries, and renewable energy sectors beyond construction.

• By 2050, aluminum demand from energy generation could increase up to 322%, with solar and wind as major contributors.

• The EV industry is set to increase aluminum consumption in transportation by 60% by 2030, with EVs using about 30% more aluminum than ICE vehicles and batteries containing significant aluminum.

• Aluminum is increasingly replacing steel and copper in various applications, especially in grid infrastructure.

• About 75% of all aluminum ever produced is still in use, highlighting its recyclability and role in the circular economy.

Supply, pricing, and industry trends

• Bauxite imports into China have grown at double-digit rates, with 13% growth in 2023 and 8% in 2024, driven by declining Chinese production and regulatory pressures.

• Guinea has become a major supplier, but new projects are lower grade and face rising costs and regulatory scrutiny.

• Indonesian export bans have led to new alumina refinery capacity, absorbing local bauxite and reducing exports.

• Australian bauxite spot prices have risen nearly 60% since early 2022, reaching $63.5/dry ton delivered into China, with price increases expected to flow into long-term contracts.

• 4-6 tonnes of bauxite are needed to produce 1 tonne of aluminum, and bauxite demand is supported by sector diversity and strong alumina demand.

Company performance and operational update

• Ramp-up of operations is on track after a delayed start, now achieving targeted daily production rates.

• August saw record shipments, with expectations for continued monthly records and cost reductions.

• Margins are expected to improve as higher prices and economies of scale take effect in Q4.

• The company is steadily paying down debt, aiming for a net cash position and potential shareholder returns by end of next year.

• Share price increased 62% year-to-date and 55% over 12 months, with a market capitalization of A$202 million and net debt of A$57 million as of June 2024.