Metsä Board (METSB) Q1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2026 results reflect challenging market conditions, with sales declining to EUR 393.7 million, mainly due to lower volumes to the US, adverse FX, and weak pulp demand, but transformation actions are yielding early benefits.

• The transformation programme has achieved 50% of its targeted €200 million EBITDA improvement on a run-rate basis, with €100 million annual run-rate savings realized by end-Q1 2026 and full impact expected by 2028.

• A new strategy, launched in March 2026, sharpens business focus on premium packaging and operational excellence, aiming for growth and reduced cyclicality.

• Operational steering prioritizes cash flow and capital discipline, with working capital management and cost-saving initiatives ongoing; working capital increased due to higher activity and mill shutdown preparations.

• No dividend was paid for 2025, as resolved at the AGM.

Financial highlights

• Q1 2026 sales: €394m, down 18% year-over-year; comparable EBITDA: €16.7m, down 67% year-over-year; comparable operating result: -€10.8m (-2.7% margin).

• Earnings per share: -€0.04 (Q1 2025: -€0.02); ROCE: -1.7% (Q1 2025: 3.9%).

• Net cash flow from operations: -€70.5m (Q1 2025: -€27.9m), impacted by increased working capital.

• Total investments in Q1 2026: €14m, mainly for business acquisitions and maintenance, down 16% year-over-year.

• Over €100 million run-rate savings from the transformation program achieved by Q1.

Outlook and guidance

• Packaging demand remains subdued due to cautious consumer behavior and overcapacity in Europe; weak consumer sentiment continues to weigh on sales visibility.

• Delivery volumes of paperboard are expected to increase in Q2 2026; cash flow is expected to strengthen as inventories are reduced post-maintenance build-up.

• Oil and natural gas price increases linked to Middle East conflict expected to have a €10 million negative impact in Q2, raising logistics and chemical costs.

• Energy and wood costs are expected to decline, but fixed costs will rise due to maintenance and seasonal factors.

• Exchange rate fluctuations are expected to have a clearly negative effect in 2026.