Metsä Group (METS) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Full-year result turned negative as profitability declined sharply due to lower sales prices, higher wood costs, and significant one-time expenses, despite strong operational cash flow and a robust financing position.

• Nearly 800 positions were terminated, and the ERP renewal was suspended, resulting in a EUR 96 million impairment; focus shifted to cost competitiveness after investment peak.

• A EUR 300 million cost savings and profit improvement programme was launched, with two-thirds of targeted savings expected in 2026 and full realization in 2027.

• Board proposes EUR 88 million profit distribution to owner-members.

• Investments totaled EUR 620.8 million, including major projects at Simpele and Mariestad mills.

Financial highlights

• Sales for 2025 were EUR 5,833 million, a 1.5% increase from EUR 5,747 million in 2024.

• Comparable operating result was EUR -85 million, down from EUR 203 million in 2024.

• EBITDA fell to EUR 342.4 million from EUR 654.1 million year-over-year; comparable EBITDA was EUR 365.2 million.

• Operating result margin dropped to -1.5% from 3.5% year-over-year.

• Net cash flow from operations was EUR 536.5 million, strengthened by working capital reduction.

Outlook and guidance

• Poor predictability for the near-term outlook due to global economic uncertainty, overcapacity, and weak consumer confidence.

• Two-thirds of the EUR 300 million cost savings programme are expected to be realized in 2026, with full impact in 2027.

• Lower wood prices are expected to support results in 2026 as previously purchased felling sites are harvested.

• Demand for pulp, paperboard, and wood products remains weak; no improvement in construction market conditions.

• Tissue paper demand is stable; greaseproof paper faces increased Chinese competition.