MOL Magyar Olaj (MOL) Q1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2026 was marked by significant operational and financial headwinds, including crude supply disruptions, refinery incidents, and regulatory interventions, resulting in a 25% year-on-year drop in Clean CCS EBITDA to $626 million.

• Upstream benefited from higher oil and gas prices and strong production, while downstream suffered from operational shocks, crude supply issues, and price controls.

• Consumer services EBITDA increased 12% year-on-year to $177 million, mainly due to favorable FX effects and higher fuel volumes in March, with non-fuel business continuing 5% organic growth.

• Rijeka refinery upgrade, including INA's EUR 700 million delayed coker unit, was completed and inaugurated, expected to boost diesel output by 30% by year-end.

• 2026 guidance is maintained but faces increased downside risks, contingent on crude supply stabilization and market normalization.

Financial highlights

• Clean CCS EBITDA for Q1 2026 was $626 million, down 25% year-on-year; profit before tax was $212 million.

• Net income for Q1 2026 was $522 million.

• Gas Midstream EBITDA increased 39% year-on-year to $93 million, supported by higher cross-border capacity demand and favorable FX.

• CapEx totaled $241 million, with organic CapEx at $252 million, reflecting increased investment in refinery upgrades and upstream field development.

• Operating cash flow before working capital was around $800 million, but working capital build led to negative operating cash flow over $500 million.

Outlook and guidance

• Annual guidance remains unchanged, with Clean CCS EBITDA target of ~$3.0 billion and profit before tax of ~$1.5 billion, assuming insurance compensation for refinery fire and normalized crude supply.

• Management expects some working capital pressures to ease with the resumption of Druzhba pipeline flows.

• Continued investment in supply diversification, refinery integration, and efficiency to enhance flexibility and maintain strong liquidity ($4.3 billion available).