Molina Healthcare (MOH) Q2 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q2 2026 adjusted EPS was $1.51 and GAAP EPS was $1.19, both down over 74% year-over-year, with net income at $60 million, reflecting lower membership, premium revenue, higher MCR, and a $93 million impairment charge from the planned MAPD exit.

• Full-year 2026 premium revenue guidance remains at ~$42B; adjusted EPS guidance raised by $0.25 to at least $5.25, driven by Medicaid outperformance.

• Membership declined 14% year-over-year to 4.9 million, mainly due to Medicaid market contraction, contract expirations, and Marketplace losses.

• Medicaid and Medicare duals segments delivered strong results, while Marketplace performance was negatively impacted by adverse member acuity mix and prior year risk adjustment items.

• 2026 is expected to be a trough year for Medicaid margins, with optimism for 2027 margin improvement as rate-setting incorporates recent trends.

Financial highlights

• Q2 2026 premium revenue: $10.2B, down 6% year-over-year; total revenue: $10.87B.

• Consolidated Q2 MCR: 92.2%, up from 90.4% in Q2 2025; Medicaid MCR: 92.7%; Medicare MCR: 90.7%; Marketplace MCR: 88.9%.

• Operating income for Q2 2026 was $145M, down from $373M in Q2 2025; net income margin: 0.8%.

• Operating cash flow for H1 2026: $788M; parent company cash at quarter-end: $290M.

• Debt-to-capital ratio at quarter-end: 47%; S&P downgraded senior notes to BB- in April 2026.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 premium revenue guidance unchanged at ~$42B; full-year adjusted EPS guidance raised to at least $5.25.

• Medicaid enrollment expected to decrease to 4.5M by year-end 2026; Marketplace enrollment to 250,000.

• 2027 premium outlook revised to $46.5B (11% YoY growth), reflecting Marketplace reduction and California Medicaid changes.

• 2027 EPS building blocks sum to >$10/share, with embedded earnings and margin improvements expected.

• 2029 targets reaffirmed: $64B premium revenue and $25 EPS, predicated on MCR improvement, growth initiatives, and operating leverage.