National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q4 adjusted operating results were $0.77 per share, with strong hedging and regulated business performance offsetting low natural gas prices; full-year adjusted EPS was $5.01, down from $5.17 in 2023.

• Achieved >10% adjusted EPS growth target for FY24–27E, with a resilient integrated model and 5% production growth to 392 Bcfe; reserves grew to 4,753–4,800 Bcfe, replacing 155% of production.

• 54th consecutive annual dividend increase, with over $590M returned to shareholders in the last 3 years and $65M–$77M in share repurchases completed.

• Surpassed 2030 methane intensity reduction goal seven years early; renewed MiQ and EO100 certifications with top grades.

• Filed for approval of the Tioga Pathway Project, targeting late 2026 in-service date, and advanced major rate cases in NY and PA.

Financial highlights

• Q4 GAAP loss of $1.84 per share due to non-cash impairments, including $34–$46.1 million from ceasing the Northern Access Project; full-year GAAP net income was $77.5 million.

• FY2024 adjusted EBITDA was $1.19 billion, with net debt/adjusted EBITDA at 2.25–2.27x and FFO/net debt at 37%.

• Free cash flow for FY2024 was $138 million, down from $275 million in FY2023.

• LOE increased $0.05 per MCF year-over-year, mainly due to maintenance timing.

• Dividend increased to $2.06 per share annually, with $183.8 million paid in 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• Fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS guidance is $5.50–$6.00 per share, assuming NYMEX prices average $2.80/MMBtu.

• Production guidance for 2025 is 400–420 Bcfe, with 89–90% of production under firm sales contracts and 63% hedged at an average floor price of $3.44.

• Capital expenditures for 2025 expected at $885–$970 million, with midpoint $20 million below 2024.

• Expects >10% adjusted EPS growth in FY25, moderating to 5–7% annually through FY2027.