NatWest Group (NWG) Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference 2026 summary

Strategic acquisitions and business transformation

• Recent acquisition of Evelyn Partners doubles AUM, adds 20% to fee income, and creates the UK's leading private bank and wealth manager.

• Evelyn brings new capabilities, including the largest employed UK advisor network and a D2C platform, enhancing technology and product offerings.

• Integration aims to create a third scale franchise alongside corporate and retail banking, with regulatory tailwinds supporting growth.

• Targeted cost synergies of £100 million and revenue synergies of £200 million are expected, with a return on invested capital above 11% within three years.

• Confidence in exceeding buyback returns and compounding benefits from AUM growth beyond the initial three-year horizon.

Growth outlook and financial guidance

• Targets over 4% CAGR in customer assets and liabilities through 2028, leveraging strong multi-year growth in lending, deposits, and AUM.

• Corporate lending grew 10% last year, supported by dominant market positions in SME, mid-market, and infrastructure lending.

• Revenue guidance for 2024 is £17.2–£17.6 billion, with volume growth as a key tailwind but margin pressure expected in mortgages and deposits.

• Structural hedge contribution projected to rise by £1.5 billion in 2026, offset by anticipated rate cuts and competitive deposit markets.

• Non-interest income has grown 32–33% since 2022, with strong performance in FX, payments, and wealth management fees.

Risk management and market uncertainties

• Geopolitical risks, especially from the Middle East, are monitored through scenario planning, with impacts seen mainly in sentiment and refinancing activity.

• Private credit exposure is managed conservatively, with structural protections and stress testing; supportive of greater transparency in the sector.

• Commercial clients show resilience, drawing on experience from past crises, while retail sentiment is affected but not activity.