NatWest Group (NWG) Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference 2026 summary

Strategic initiatives and acquisitions

• Acquisition of Evelyn Partners doubles AUM, adds 20% to fee income, and creates the UK's top private bank and wealth manager.

• Evelyn brings new capabilities, including the largest employed UK advisor network and a D2C platform, Bestinvest.

• Integration aims for GBP 100 million in cost synergies and GBP 200 million in revenue synergies, with mid to high single-digit AUM growth assumed.

• Return on invested capital for the deal is set above 11%, exceeding buyback returns within three years.

• Regulatory changes and tech trends are expected to support higher growth and returns.

Growth outlook and revenue guidance

• Targets greater than 4% CAGR in customer assets and liabilities through 2028, leveraging strong multi-year growth in lending, deposits, and AUM.

• Corporate lending grew 10% last year, supported by dominant UK market share and strong demand capture.

• Revenue guidance for 2024 is GBP 17.2–17.6 billion, with volume growth as a key tailwind but margin pressure expected in mortgages and deposits.

• Structural hedge contribution projected to rise by GBP 1.5 billion in 2026 versus 2025.

• Fee income has grown 32–33% since 2022, with commercial and institutional business contributing 70% of total fees.

Risk management and uncertainties

• Geopolitical risks, especially from the Middle East, are monitored via scenario planning; direct impacts are second-order, mainly through energy prices and sentiment.

• Private credit exposure is managed conservatively, with strong structural protections and stress testing.

• Commercial clients show resilience, while retail sentiment is affected but not activity; mortgage refinancing has increased as customers anticipate rate changes.

• Support for greater transparency in private markets through regulatory stress testing.