Nedbank Group (NED) H2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2025 marked a transformative year with strategic reorganization, acquisitions of iKhokha and Eqstra, sale of a 21% stake in ETI, and an offer to acquire a controlling stake in NCBA Group, positioning for growth in Southern and East Africa.

• Financial performance was resilient: headline earnings up 2%, DHEPS up 3%, and ROE at 15.4%, all ahead of guidance.

• Operating environment improved with GDP growth to 1.4%, lower inflation, and increased business confidence.

• Digital adoption surged, with 73% of PBB sales via digital channels and strong growth in app usage.

• Sustainable development finance exposures reached ZAR 207 billion, achieving the 20% target of gross loans.

Financial highlights

• Headline earnings up 2% to R17.2bn; DHEPS up 3% to 3628 cents; ROE at 15.4% (above COE of 14.6%).

• Gross banking advances up 6% to R997bn; deposits up 11% to R1,306bn; CET1 ratio at 12.9%.

• Cost-to-income ratio increased to 57.8%; credit loss ratio improved to 68 bps (from 87 bps in 2024).

• Dividend of ZAR 21.32 per share (final DPS of 1104 cents), yielding ~7%; NAV per share up 4% to 24,956 cents.

• Basic EPS fell 53% due to ETI disposal.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 guidance: NII and NIR growth in mid-single digits, NIM to contract slightly, CLR to normalize to mid-70 bps, no further ETI associate income.

• ROE expected above 15% for 2026, aiming for 17% medium-term; cost-to-income ratio to improve.

• CET1 ratio to operate within 11%-12.5% range, with dividends covered 1.75-2.25x.

• Medium-term targets: DHEPS growth > CPI + GDP + 3%, CIR to 54%.