NextDecade (NEXT) Q1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Construction at the Rio Grande LNG Facility is ahead of schedule and within budget, with early commissioning underway for Train 1 and significant progress on Trains 2–5; first LNG from Train 1 is expected in the first half of 2027.

• Over 175 TBtu of early LNG cargoes for 2027–2028 have been marketed and sold at margins above $3/MMBtu, reducing market exposure by one-third.

• Long-term LNG SPAs for 25.3 MTPA from Trains 1–5 are in place with 14 counterparties, averaging 19.5 years in term, with over 77% of five-train capacity contracted.

• Expansion plans for Trains 6–8 are advancing, with regulatory filings, FEED studies, and site development underway, targeting up to 60 MTPA total capacity.

• The facility is positioned as one of the world’s largest LNG production/export sites, with up to 10 trains possible.

Financial highlights

• Phase 1 (Trains 1–3) project cost is estimated at $18.0 billion, Train 4 at $6.7 billion, and Train 5 at $6.7 billion; all are fully funded through a mix of debt and equity.

• Major project financing secured: $11.6B debt and $6.2B equity for Phase 1, $3.8B debt and $2.8B equity for Train 4, $3.6B debt and $2.6B equity for Train 5.

• Revenue for Q1 2026 was $49.9 million, up from $44.9 million in Q1 2025; net loss attributable to common stockholders was $136.4 million, driven by higher interest and administrative costs.

• Early LNG production could generate $1.2–$2 billion in distributable cash flow depending on margin scenarios, with steady-state DCF projected at $500–$800 million annually post-DFCD.

• YTD, over 175 TBtu of portfolio volumes sold at fixed liquefaction fee with estimated margin over $3.00/MMBtu.

Outlook and guidance

• First gas into the facility is expected in the second half of 2026, with first LNG production from Train 1 in the first half of 2027.

• No significant cash flows from operations are expected until liquefaction trains become operational; funding will continue through debt and equity offerings.

• FID for Train 6 is targeted for the second half of 2027, with commercial operations as early as 2032.

• Expansion trains (6–8) are expected to add approximately 18 MTPA of liquefaction capacity.

• Steady-state distributable cash flow guidance reaffirmed, with potential upside from construction progress and market conditions.