Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Adjusted EBITDA rose 1% year-over-year to $1.63 billion, demonstrating resilience despite a 14% drop in average oil prices and a 2% lower share count.

• Q4 2025 production reached 140,100 Boe/d (53% oil), up 6% year-over-year and 7% sequentially, with record natural gas output up 24% year-over-year.

• Net debt declined modestly year-over-year, with a net debt to LTM Adjusted EBITDA ratio at 1.4x, and liquidity increased to over $1.1 billion post-Utica acquisition.

• Closed over $464.6 million in acquisitions, including the Utica JV, expanding the organic footprint by over 12,000 acres in 2025 and adding significant upstream and midstream assets.

• Paid $230.4 million in shareholder returns for 2025, including $173.4 million in dividends and $57.0 million in share repurchases, with the dividend designed to be sustainable and expected to grow through cycles.

Financial highlights

• Q4 average daily production was 140,000 Boe/d, up 7% sequentially and 6% year-over-year; full-year average was 135,000 Boe/d, up 9% from 2024.

• Q4 Adjusted EBITDA was $366.5 million; Free Cash Flow was $43.2 million; full-year Adjusted EBITDA was $1.63 billion and Free Cash Flow was $424 million.

• Q4 Adjusted net income was $82 million ($0.83/share), excluding a $270 million non-cash impairment; full-year Adjusted net income was $453 million ($4.57/share).

• Net debt/Adjusted EBITDA was 1.4x at year-end; year-end liquidity was $1.1 billion.

• Q4 oil price averaged $54.09/Bbl (unhedged), a $5.05 differential to WTI; gas price was $2.35/Mcf, about 58% of Henry Hub.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 production guidance: 139,000–148,000 Boe/d, with oil at 68,000–76,000 Bbl/d; CapEx expected between $850–$1,100 million depending on activity level.

• Guidance includes low and high activity scenarios, reflecting commodity price uncertainty and potential for deferred high-value development.

• Production expenses per Boe expected at $9.45–$10.10; oil price differential to WTI at ($5.50)–($6.50) per Bbl.

• Initial CapEx cadence weighted 65% to 1H 2026; wells turned-in-line projected at 67.5–87.0 for 2026.

• Activity in 2026 expected to be split: Permian 40%, Appalachia 25%, Williston 25%, Uinta 10%.