Novelis (Novelis) Q3 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 FY2026 performance was significantly impacted by two fires at the Oswego, NY plant, resulting in major operational disruption, a net loss of $160 million, and an 11% decline in shipments, but underlying business resilience was supported by cost efficiencies and strong demand in beverage packaging.

• Adjusted EBITDA fell 5% year-over-year to $348 million, with Oswego fires and tariffs negatively impacting results, partially offset by cost efficiencies and recycling benefits.

• Net sales rose 3% year-over-year to $4.2 billion, driven by higher aluminum prices despite lower volumes.

• Cost efficiency program raised FY26 exit run-rate savings outlook to over $150 million, with a target of $300 million in annualized savings by FY2028.

• Bay Minette, Alabama greenfield plant construction is progressing, with cold mill commissioning expected next month and full plant commissioning in the second half of calendar 2026.

Financial highlights

• Net sales for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, were $4.2 billion, up 3% year-over-year, with shipments down 11% to 809 kilotonnes due to Oswego disruptions.

• Adjusted EBITDA was $348 million, down 5% year-over-year, including a $54 million negative impact from Oswego fires and $34 million from tariffs.

• Adjusted EBITDA per tonne increased 6% to $430, reflecting cost efficiencies.

• Net loss attributable to common shareholder was $160 million, including $327 million in fire-related losses below EBITDA.

• Year-to-date adjusted free cash flow outflow was $1.6 billion, mainly due to higher aluminum prices and Oswego fire costs.

Outlook and guidance

• Oswego hot mill expected to restart late in Q2 of calendar 2026; full hot mill restart expected by end of Q1 fiscal 2027.

• Combined free cash flow impact from fires estimated at $1.3–$1.6 billion before insurance, with $150–$200 million Adjusted EBITDA impact.

• Expect to recover 70–80% of fire-related cash flow impact through insurance.

• Fiscal 2026 capital expenditures expected at $1.9–$2.2 billion, including $300 million maintenance CapEx.

• Cost efficiency program targets over $300 million in total savings by end of FY28.