Orange Polska (OPL) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Solid commercial and financial performance in Q3 and 9M 2024, with stable revenues and strong growth in core telecom services and ARPU, despite a challenging business market environment.

• Consistent momentum in net customer additions and ARPU growth across key telecom services, with B2C and fibre customer base expanding.

• B2B and ICT segments underperformed due to weak public sector demand and challenging business sentiment.

• Strategic focus on expanding wholesale activity, including opening fiber access to 2.5 million households and ongoing regulatory developments around the 700/800 MHz spectrum auction.

• Full-year guidance for revenue, EBITDAaL, and eCapex confirmed.

Financial highlights

• 3Q 2024 revenues at PLN 3,105 million, down 0.3% year-over-year; 9M 2024 revenues at PLN 9,309 million, down 1.8%.

• Core telecom services revenue grew 6.1% year-over-year in Q3, offsetting declines in equipment and energy resale.

• 3Q EBITDAAL up 3.1% year-over-year to PLN 867 million; 9M EBITDAAL up 3.9% to PLN 2,520 million.

• 3Q net income rose 7.2% year-over-year to PLN 254 million; 9M net income at PLN 712 million, down 4.6% year-over-year.

• Organic cash flow in 9M 2024 at PLN 664 million, down 21.7% year-over-year, impacted by higher working capital needs and dividend payment.

Outlook and guidance

• 2024 revenue expected to be flat or show a low single-digit decline; EBITDAAL projected to grow low- to mid-single digits year-over-year.

• eCAPEX guidance for 2024 set at PLN 1.7–1.9 billion, reflecting 5G rollout and real estate sales phasing.

• Expectation to maintain strong commercial momentum into the peak Christmas season with attractive offers.

• Plans to significantly grow ICT revenues quarter-on-quarter in Q4, though high prior-year comparables may limit year-over-year growth.

• Lower inflationary headwinds expected in 2025, with cost trends likely to improve compared to 2024.