P3 Health Partners (PIII) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Guiding to a 2026 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint of $10 million, a $170 million improvement from the 2025 Adjusted EBITDA loss of $161 million, driven by $170 million in structural and operational improvements.

• 2025 focused on strengthening contracts, provider alignment, and clinical quality, laying the foundation for 2026 profitability.

• At-risk membership declined intentionally by 8–9% year-over-year due to network alignment, ending 2025 at approximately 116,000 members.

• Announced a new partnership expanding into a new Medicare Advantage geography, adding 29,000 members and a multi-year glide path to risk.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2025 revenue was $384.8 million, up from $370.7 million in Q4 2024; full-year revenue was $1.46 billion, down from $1.50 billion in 2024.

• Capitated revenue PMPM increased 9% year-over-year in Q4 and 5% for the full year, reaching $1,060 in Q4 and $1,026 for 2025.

• Medical margin for 2025 was $23.5 million ($17 PMPM); normalized medical margin was $53.4 million ($38 PMPM), up from $51.5 million ($34 PMPM) in 2024.

• Q4 2025 net loss was $165.7 million, compared to $129.1 million in Q4 2024; full-year net loss was $323.1 million, compared to $310.4 million in 2024.

• Adjusted EBITDA loss for 2025 was $161.3 million, a $44 million normalized improvement over 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance is -$20 million to $40 million, with a midpoint of $10 million, representing a $170 million year-over-year improvement.

• At-risk membership expected to be 107,000–117,000; total lives under management to reach 140,000 with the new partnership.

• Total revenue guidance for 2026 is $1.5–$1.7 billion.

• 2026 medical margin projected at $160–$200 million, or $120–$150 PMPM.

• About 75% of the $170 million improvement is already run-rated as of January 2026, mainly from revenue and contract updates.