Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Fourth quarter 2024 net income was $221 million ($2.45/share); excluding special items, $222 million ($2.47/share), up from $192 million ($2.13/share) in Q4 2023.

• Full-year 2024 net income was $805 million ($8.93/share); excluding special items, $814 million ($9.04/share), up from $784 million ($8.70/share) in 2023.

• Net sales reached a Q4 record of $2.1 billion, up from $1.9 billion in Q4 2023; full-year net sales were $8.4 billion, up from $7.8 billion in 2023.

• Corrugated products plants set record quarterly and annual shipment levels; containerboard production and inventory also reached new highs.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 EBITDA, excluding special items, was $439 million, up from $393 million in Q4 2023; full-year EBITDA, excluding special items, was $1.64 billion, up from $1.60 billion in 2023.

• Q4 2024 gross profit was $470 million, up from $410 million in Q4 2023; full-year gross profit was $1.78 billion, up from $1.70 billion in 2023.

• Packaging segment Q4 EBITDA (ex-special items): $426 million (22% margin); full year: $1.6 billion (21% margin).

• Paper segment Q4 EBITDA (ex-special items): $39 million (26% margin); full year: $154 million (25% margin).

• Cash from operations in 2024 was $1.2 billion; free cash flow was $521 million.

Outlook and guidance

• Q1 2025 earnings expected at $2.21/share, with record first quarter shipments in the Packaging segment anticipated.

• Domestic prices to rise with improved mix and price increases; export prices assumed stable.

• Paper segment volume forecast slightly lower; prices and mix to remain flat.

• Cost inflation expected across most categories, especially energy, chemicals, labor, and logistics.

• 2025 planned annual outages at all larger mills, with higher outage days and estimated total impact of $1.18/share.