Pampa Energía (PAMP) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Rincón de Aranda's ramp-up and vertical integration drove record oil and gas production, with oil now 34% of E&P EBITDA and 18% of total E&P for the quarter.

• Adjusted EBITDA reached $322 million, up 16% year-over-year, with a margin of 43%, mainly from shale oil growth, higher B2B sales, and self-procured gas.

• Management repurchased 0.8 million ADRs at $58.8/ADR after market volatility, with the stock rising to $90/ADR.

• Net income attributable to shareholders was $23 million, down 84% year-over-year, mainly due to higher non-cash deferred tax charges.

• Net debt rose to $874 million as of September 2025, mainly from investments and share buybacks, but improved to $790 million after OCP Ecuador guarantee release.

Financial highlights

• Oil and gas sales grew 35% year-over-year, with Q3 25 production at 99.5 kboe/day (+14% YoY), driven by Rincón de Aranda's shale oil ramp-up.

• Power generation sales increased 12% year-over-year, supported by self-procured gas and higher spot capacity prices.

• Capex surged 183% year-over-year to $332 million, with $174 million invested in Rincón de Aranda.

• Free cash flow for Q3 2025 was $6 million, down $74 million year-over-year but up $313 million sequentially.

• Gross margin per MWh in power generation rose 17% year-over-year to $26.5.

Outlook and guidance

• Oil production expected to reach 18,000–19,000 bpd in Q4 2025, ramping to 28,000 bpd by H2 2026 and targeting 45,000 bpd by 2027.

• Lifting costs for oil projected to fall from $10 to $9 per barrel in 2026, with overall lifting cost dropping to $6.2 per BOE.

• Power generation EBITDA expected to improve by at least 10–15% in 2026 due to regulatory changes and B2B market expansion.

• Capex for 2026 forecasted at $750 million, with leverage expected to remain around 1.1–1.3x.

• New regulatory framework for the wholesale electricity market effective November 2025 aims to increase competition and decentralize fuel supply.